“There is a simple process at work: Africa is learning from its mistakes”
Edward Miguel is an astute observer of Africa. I particularly admire his combination of insights from fieldwork with an analysis of the big picture, but let me try to offer something more useful than praise.
I wrote The Bottom Billion in 2005. Given the lags in economic data, it was only possible to track African economic performance until around 2002, so the millennium was a natural place to draw the line. As Miguel’s chart of income shows, the early cut off misses something important: since the turn of the millennium, there has been a boom at the bottom. Obviously, the key question is whether this marks a real break with past trends or a blip. . . . I rather doubt that the wave of democratization has driven the economic turnaround.
View Collier's recent TED Talk to learn more about his thoughts on third world development.
This article has become a book!
Africa’s Turn?
Edward Miguel
Cloth / April 2009
“A refreshing take on the fortunes of Africa in the current century and a fascinating compendium of some of the leading theorists of African development.” — Publishers Weekly
By the end of the twentieth century, sub–Saharan Africa had experienced twenty–five years of economic and political disaster. While “economic miracles” in China and India raised hundreds of millions from extreme poverty, Africa seemed to have been overtaken by violent conflict and mass destitution, and ranked lowest in the world in just about every economic and social indicator.
Working in Busia, a small Kenyan border town, economist Edward Miguel began to notice something different starting in 1997: modest but steady economic progress, with new construction projects, flower markets, shops, and ubiquitous cell phones. In Africa’s Turn? Miguel tracks a decade of comparably hopeful economic trends throughout sub–Saharan Africa and suggests that we may be seeing a turnaround.
Responding to Miguel, nine experts gauge his optimism: Olu Ajakaiye, Ken Banks, Robert Bates, Paul Collier, Rachel Glennerster, Rosamond Naylor, Smita Singh, David N. Weil, and Jeremy M. Weinstein.
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About the Author
Paul Collier is Professor of Economics and Director of the Oxford Center for the Study of African Economies. His book, The Bottom Billion won the 2008 Lionel Gelber Prize.
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This is a response to Edward Miguel's Is It Africa's Turn?
Other responses in the New Democracy Forum:
Robert Bates
Ken Banks
Olu Ajakaiye
Rosamond Naylor
David N. Weil
Jeremy M. Weinstein
Smita Singh
Rachel Glennerster
Edward Miguel offers his own response to the
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